Building evaluation index of power and protest potential in regular quantitative public opinion research (omnibus poll) The Russian Public Opinion Research Center and The Levada Center

Abstract

The article deals with the construction of the index procedure in quantitative studies of public opinion (omnibus surveys) carried out in two competent organi-zations in Russia – the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (RPORC) and the Levada-center (LC). On the basis of an omnibus revealed various indices which are constantly published and widely cited. The results can be seen as a tool to assess and thus control of the authorities, as a public institution in the system of checks and balances, as the validation of election tool or as a whole, as one of the tools of a democratic society. Omnibus surveys can provide data on the approval of the authori-ties, and the dynamics of approval ratings affect the activity of the authorities, those politicians and officials who want to remain in power. Sociologists, understanding the boundaries of public opinion should focus on ensuring the reliability and indepen-dence of the results. Reliability is ensured with methodology, scientific procedures. The omnibus methodology consists with the construction of the sample and indexes. Attention to the indexes, so due to the fact that they are important for reliability.

Indices in the RPORC and LC can be divided into three groups: the approval of the authorities (politicians), the ratings; assessment of the situation in the country and the po-tential for protest; socio-economic. The methodology of the index construction allows for greater freedom of action. Indexes can be expressed in charts, tables, rankings. The tech-nique of index construction seems straightforward; it is not require profound knowledge of math. There are always the simplest operations of addition, subtraction, multiplication and grouping are used. Simplicity allows verifying accuracy, understanding limitations of indices to a wide range of citizens and scientists. The article also discusses methods of struggle with political pressure in LC and RPORC. The results of the omnibus surveys have begun to play a prominent role in public life. In view of this the question of the indepen-dence of research is very important. Independence can be ensured by competition and constant publication of the results in the media, but these methods may not be available. Studies of public opinion, on the one hand are able to strengthen the democratic regime, on the other hand depend on it, and as a rule, can only develop its conditions.